Is it Time to Abandon Facebook?

Hundreds of birds clung to the wires. Shoulder-to-shoulder they stand. A few of you know what that means.

Nature whispers “a cold front is coming.”

The birds hear those whispers and they survive. In fact, they thrive.

But I’m not talking about birds.

Here are the loud voices that can derail your business goals:

• A record number of users are taking a break from Facebook
• Facebook stock dropped 40% in 2018
• Another senior executive just left Facebook
• Cambridge Analytica hijacked data
• Russian Trolls tilted the election
• British Parliament seized private Facebook documents and emails
• Facebook can’t shake loose from ongoing scandals

Any reasonable person would be concerned. Some of you will move your advertising away from Facebook. But where will you go?

What are your alternatives to Facebook?

Remember the birds? They didn’t give up hope. No, they regrouped.

They listened to the whispers and survived. In fact, they thrived.

What are the whispers saying?

• Facebook still has over 2 billion users
• WhatsApp (owned by Facebook) has 1.5 billion users
• Facebook messenger has 1.3 billion users (and growing)
• Instagram (owned by Facebook) has over 1 billion users (and growing)
• Zuckerberg has led Facebook through tough times before (more below)

This isn’t a weird Zuckerberg lovefest. It’s reality. Where will you move your advertising if you pull it from Facebook?

Twitter has less than 70 million active users. Snapchat has 188 million. Pinterest has 200 million active users. LinkedIn clocks in at 500 million users, but only 260 million are active on a monthly basis.

Even if Facebook lost half of its users, it would still have more than the other networks combined.

Your customers are on Facebook. B2C or B2B, doesn’t matter. Your customers are on the platform. (Yes, your B2B customers are on Facebook).

Of course, this could change. Facebook may join Myspace in oblivion. But we’re not there yet. Not even close.

Hear the whisper …. Facebook is still the cheapest place to reach your audience.

What’s the future look like?

We don’t know the future. But we know Zuckerberg has navigated tough waters before. Look at the first year following Facebook’s IPO.

• Facebook IPO’d in May 2012 and the stock price dropped for 6 months.
• Facebook didn’t have a great answer for the shift to mobile and it spooked investors[1].
• Q2 2012 mobile revenue is sketchy, but from some reports[2], it appears to be about 4% of revenue.
• By June 6^th, 2012, investors lost $40 billion in Facebook stock value.
• By Q4-2012, Facebook increased mobile revenue to 24% of total revenue[3].
• Facebook finally recovered to its IPO price in August 2013.
• By Q3-2013, Facebook increased mobile revenue to 49% of total revenue[4].

In about 1 year, Zuckerberg took Facebook from single-digit mobile revenue to almost 50%. At the same time, he doubled total revenue.

This isn’t the only time he’s done this. Zuckerberg is legendary for his ability to focus his team and deliver results in short timeframes. Time will tell if he can deliver again.

Wrapping up

If you’re not advertising on Facebook, you should be. Your audience is on Facebook. Yes, even if you’re B2B, your audience is on Facebook.

Facebook is your cheapest source of traffic. Yes, especially if you’re B2B.

Facebook Advertising is grossly underpriced… and everyone here should move as much of their money into the platform as they possibly can… 

Running Facebook ads and it not being successful is not a Facebook issue… it’s a YOU issue!  

You did not plan the media probably… you did not make the words & pictures work probably.  

This is NOT a debate. This is data supported… and I don’t want to hear that your customers aren’t on it… because that doesn’t exist… I don’t want to hear that your industry doesn’t do well on it… because it doesn’t exist…” – Gary Vaynerchuk 2017

Don’t expect random social posting to deliver traffic. The only thing that’s changed since we wrote “A Sober Approach to Social Media” (in 2014) is organic reach dropped even further. So, don’t waste money on some agency that posts for you.

Don’t expect traditional ads to work on Facebook. You need to adapt your ads for the platform. We’re currently getting the best results from long-form ads focused on human stories.

The day may come when it’s time to abandon Facebook. But not today. Not even close.

[1] https://www.clickz.com/facebook-reports-59-million-loss-in-q3-2012-share-prices-jump-8/43216/

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2012/07/26/facebook-hits-q2-earnings-forecasts-but-shares-falling/#cd34e639cced

[3] https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2013/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2012-Results/default.aspx

[4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2013/10/30/live-facebook-crushes-q3-earnings-on-mobile-ad-strength-shares-surge/#6fbb24f860c9